Understanding real estate isn't just about location, it's about timing.
05 Jul 2025, 19:34
Understanding real estate isn’t just about location, it’s about timing.
Let’s break down how macro trends shape real estate cycles and what it means for today’s market 👇
Real estate runs in long-term cycles, typically spanning 18 years.
From boom to bust, it mirrors credit cycles, interest rates, and demographic shifts.
Miss the timing, and you might overpay. Nail the cycle, and you ride generational wealth.
The 4 Phases of the Real Estate Cycle:
Recovery - Prices stabilize, vacancies fall
Expansion - New construction, strong GDP, rising rents
Hyper Supply - Oversupply creeps in
Recession - High vacancies, falling prices
Rinse. Repeat.
Let’s overlay macro trends:
Low Interest Rates = Cheap credit = Real estate boom
High Inflation = Flight to real assets (like property)
Demographic Booms (Millennials, Gen Z) = Increased housing demand
Remote Work = Suburban & tier-2 city surges
What’s happening now?
> Rate hikes cooled major markets (NYC, SF, Dubai)
> CRE under pressure (offices especially)
> Residential is still hot in growth cities (Austin, Dubai, Bangalore)
> Institutional capital rotating into income-yielding properties
Here’s where it gets interesting:
Tokenization is breaking the cycle open. No more waiting for entire market turns.
But remember: macro still matters. Even tokenized properties are shaped by:
Local regulations
Property cycles
Interest rate changes
Global capital flows
Smart investors study macro + micro.
They track:
> REIT trends
> Bond yields
> Migration data
> Urban development plans
> Tokenized RWA marketplaces 😉